Yep. Yep. Yep. Everything I’ve been saying all along. 2016 may not have been a fluke, but it definitely wasn’t permanent. You also forgot the catholic vote which flipped to Trump in 2016 for only the second time in American history, but actually wound up favoring Biden in 2020 by a greater margin. I think that’s definitely a huge factor in the rust belt.
PA could be likely blue in 2028? I think we're not maxxed out either in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia urban areas and we can run it up in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs.
I also think MI looks good for Democrats. WI I think will trend to the right until more and more Gen Z and Alpha Gen voters step in, and then it'll shift back to the left: this will happen around 2036-2040.
MN is a blue state through and through: Twin Cities is too much even for a victory for Republicans in the Iron Range.
But also, the declining minority population in major urban areas could be a reason why people are thinking PA and the rest of the rust belt are trending red, when in reality, the suburban growth is offsetting that.
EPIC
Yep. Yep. Yep. Everything I’ve been saying all along. 2016 may not have been a fluke, but it definitely wasn’t permanent. You also forgot the catholic vote which flipped to Trump in 2016 for only the second time in American history, but actually wound up favoring Biden in 2020 by a greater margin. I think that’s definitely a huge factor in the rust belt.
PA could be likely blue in 2028? I think we're not maxxed out either in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia urban areas and we can run it up in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs.
I also think MI looks good for Democrats. WI I think will trend to the right until more and more Gen Z and Alpha Gen voters step in, and then it'll shift back to the left: this will happen around 2036-2040.
MN is a blue state through and through: Twin Cities is too much even for a victory for Republicans in the Iron Range.
Wdyt?
Thanks for the article. It gave me hope that we aren't completely losing the Rustbelt
But also, the declining minority population in major urban areas could be a reason why people are thinking PA and the rest of the rust belt are trending red, when in reality, the suburban growth is offsetting that.