Good post. The national popular vote aggregate (RCP) for the two way race have improved but still underwhelming with Trump up on Harris by +1.6 compared to him being up on Biden by 3.1, so notably a 1.5 gain, but consider that Biden at this time in 2020 was up on Trump by +8.7 so the Ds are 10.3% off their 2020 pace and only won that election by under 0.7% in the tipping states. Lots of ground to make up there. But it is early. Just that the widespread optimism I see on the D side tends to underestimate the tough spot they are in. They have gone from a likely landslide loss to just being strongly behind. Harris will definitely need to run a great campaign to pull this off.
Thats sorta the issue I see here. I am not exactly sure if Kamala Harris is gaining any new ground with voters, but just retaking a portion that may not have turned out for Biden(that did in 2020). These young, black and latino voters that would vote for Kamala but not Biden would never vote for Trump. Landsliding, winning tickets usually start from a very high position, or massively gain ground in certain areas. Biden 2020 gained massively in th e suburbs. Polling has been questionable, but its kinda concerning how far behind democrats *appear to be in Arizona in particular, given that the fundamentals say its one of the easiest dem states. Harris needs to gain about 4-5% in the polls to be considered the favorite imo.
And what is interesting about AZ is that although Trump was running way ahead, so is the progressive Dem Gallego over Kari Lake. That is a funny situation where Trump has been running ahead, but strongly MAGA candidates like Lake are losing. That to me, suggests that the problem was largely Biden, since Gallego's politics are not far from Harris. I will be watching to see if those polls change.
This was the election that the Rs were in a place to take the Senate given that all competitive seats are now held by Dems. The two weakest R seats are TX and FL rated as likely R which imo means it is a 95% chance of staying R. On the other hand all the Lean and Toss Ups are Dems and they will lose WV which is now safe R which makes the Senate 50-50 and Tester is behind in MT and the Dem polling leads in WI, MI, OH, AZ, PA are still small.
Its funny, its been 3 weeks, and I think Kamala literally needs like ~1-2% more in national polls and ~1% more in swing state polls for me to call her the definitive favorite. I think AZ *should be easier for her than a state like wisconsin, all the demographics points to it. Rn i have the senate 52 r - 48 d, with tester and brown losing.
Orelleh, I'm with you. Now Nate Silver in his methodology where he takes the polling aggregates and applies his special sauce has Harris' odd of winning at about 53% and the betting odds are similar with Harris now favored. That is pretty close to a dead even.
My concern is that Trump has been under estimated significantly in 2016 and 2020 and I am not sure that what caused that (my speculation is that it is the angry Trump effect where anti establishment MAGAs dont trust pollsters so they refuse to do polls more) and I dont think that Dem bias in the polls has been solved. Nate Silver of 538 notably got 5 states wrong in 2016 and two in 2020 and they were all states he called for the Dems that went R. RealClearPolitics has a better track record with three wrong in 2016 and two in 2020, but the 2020 mistakes went both ways. Their current electoral, no toss up, map has Trump with a very narrow victory mostly as they have PA in his column. It is clearly a toss up and PA is the key state. I wonder whether if the Dems lose b/c of PA will they regret having passed up Shapiro.
The polls still have Sherrod Brown up by 5.0 fairly consistent in a number of polls and Tester down by about 2. Given that Brown is a known quantity and Moreno is a MAGA endorsed guy where the recent MAGAs like Oz and Walker all bombed, I favor Brown winning, and Rs with 51.
Good post. The national popular vote aggregate (RCP) for the two way race have improved but still underwhelming with Trump up on Harris by +1.6 compared to him being up on Biden by 3.1, so notably a 1.5 gain, but consider that Biden at this time in 2020 was up on Trump by +8.7 so the Ds are 10.3% off their 2020 pace and only won that election by under 0.7% in the tipping states. Lots of ground to make up there. But it is early. Just that the widespread optimism I see on the D side tends to underestimate the tough spot they are in. They have gone from a likely landslide loss to just being strongly behind. Harris will definitely need to run a great campaign to pull this off.
Thats sorta the issue I see here. I am not exactly sure if Kamala Harris is gaining any new ground with voters, but just retaking a portion that may not have turned out for Biden(that did in 2020). These young, black and latino voters that would vote for Kamala but not Biden would never vote for Trump. Landsliding, winning tickets usually start from a very high position, or massively gain ground in certain areas. Biden 2020 gained massively in th e suburbs. Polling has been questionable, but its kinda concerning how far behind democrats *appear to be in Arizona in particular, given that the fundamentals say its one of the easiest dem states. Harris needs to gain about 4-5% in the polls to be considered the favorite imo.
And what is interesting about AZ is that although Trump was running way ahead, so is the progressive Dem Gallego over Kari Lake. That is a funny situation where Trump has been running ahead, but strongly MAGA candidates like Lake are losing. That to me, suggests that the problem was largely Biden, since Gallego's politics are not far from Harris. I will be watching to see if those polls change.
This was the election that the Rs were in a place to take the Senate given that all competitive seats are now held by Dems. The two weakest R seats are TX and FL rated as likely R which imo means it is a 95% chance of staying R. On the other hand all the Lean and Toss Ups are Dems and they will lose WV which is now safe R which makes the Senate 50-50 and Tester is behind in MT and the Dem polling leads in WI, MI, OH, AZ, PA are still small.
Its funny, its been 3 weeks, and I think Kamala literally needs like ~1-2% more in national polls and ~1% more in swing state polls for me to call her the definitive favorite. I think AZ *should be easier for her than a state like wisconsin, all the demographics points to it. Rn i have the senate 52 r - 48 d, with tester and brown losing.
Orelleh, I'm with you. Now Nate Silver in his methodology where he takes the polling aggregates and applies his special sauce has Harris' odd of winning at about 53% and the betting odds are similar with Harris now favored. That is pretty close to a dead even.
My concern is that Trump has been under estimated significantly in 2016 and 2020 and I am not sure that what caused that (my speculation is that it is the angry Trump effect where anti establishment MAGAs dont trust pollsters so they refuse to do polls more) and I dont think that Dem bias in the polls has been solved. Nate Silver of 538 notably got 5 states wrong in 2016 and two in 2020 and they were all states he called for the Dems that went R. RealClearPolitics has a better track record with three wrong in 2016 and two in 2020, but the 2020 mistakes went both ways. Their current electoral, no toss up, map has Trump with a very narrow victory mostly as they have PA in his column. It is clearly a toss up and PA is the key state. I wonder whether if the Dems lose b/c of PA will they regret having passed up Shapiro.
The polls still have Sherrod Brown up by 5.0 fairly consistent in a number of polls and Tester down by about 2. Given that Brown is a known quantity and Moreno is a MAGA endorsed guy where the recent MAGAs like Oz and Walker all bombed, I favor Brown winning, and Rs with 51.